The Economy & the Fed

Consensus Forecast

The average prediction of professional economists for an economic report before it comes out, gathered by data providers in the days ahead. Markets set prices on that expectation in advance, so the number itself matters less than how it compares with the forecast. A result above the consensus is a “beat” or a “hot” print, one below is a “miss” or a “cool” print, and the size of that gap, called the surprise, is what moves prices in the first minutes after a release.

Educational information, not investment advice. See it applied across the screener →